"Every stock owner should read this book."-- Allan H. Meltzer, professor of political economy, Carnegie Mellon University* A radically new way to determine what stocks are really worth * Why the Dow is still poised to zoom * Why the financial establishment is wrong * Why stocks are actually less risky than bonds * How to build a maximizing portfolio and invest without fear"One of the hottest business books around. . . . It has wonderfully clear explanations of financial theory [and] excellent advice on general investing approaches." -- Allan Sloan, Newsweek"It may sound like headline-grabbing sensationalism, but the scholarly and punctilious authors make a persuasive case . . . the book is highly readable and witty."-- Arthur M. Louis, San Francisco Chronicle"Dow 36,000 is a provocative and well-written treatise that cannot be dismissed. . . ."-- Burton G. Malkiel, Wall Street Journal"Dow 36,000: Everything you know about stocks is wrong."-- Jim Jubak, Worth magazine
Bubbleology: The New Science of Stock Market Winners and Losers
There are only two types of stocks: those safe from bubbles and those that are not. This is a fact of investing many discovered as they saw their fabulous gains whittled away by the extreme calamity of the Internet sector. But what about the future? Is there a way for investors to capture the enormous potential for profit that exists at the frontier of the economy, the place where innovation and genius operate, without placing their fortunes in jeopardy? Is there a way to evaluate price increases—and declines—and identify whether they are happening for good or bad reasons? Bubbleology makes it possible to separate the winners from the losers. It is a brilliant, practical, and original analysis of the stock market that bashes the conventional wisdom about bubbles, showing that such famous examples as Tulipomania were not, in fact, bubbles at all. Bubbleology shows that the traditional way of evaluating risk—equating it with volatility—is inherently flawed and incomplete. If a stock fluctuates a lot in price it is regarded as risky. If the price is stable, then it is not. What this simplistic way of thinking leaves out is the simple fact that companies trying something completely new that may fundamentally alter the economic landscape are operating at the frontier. The stock of such a company swims in a sea of ambiguity, its circumstances uncertain, since there is little to provide guidance about the future. But when nobody knows for sure what will happen, pundits tell us again about Tulipomania, the South Seas Bubble, and now the debacle of the Internet to scare investors away from potentially enormous profits. To realize those profits, however, investors have to understand the role that uncertainty and ambiguity—the absence of reliable information about future events—play in the modern stock market. Those who equate ambiguity with bubbles will miss the great opportunities of the future.Bubbleology provides a new way to observe what is really going on in the market, enabling you to understand whether a stock or a sector is suspicious—whether it is in a bubble and therefore something to be avoided. Finding bubbles requires knowing where to look and what to look for. Bubbleology will help you avoid both streaming into speculative manias and shying away from perfectly good business opportunities. It tells you why you need to avoid both pontificating pundits and overconfident stock analysts. With this unique and forward-thinking book, you can inspect suspicious stocks, accurately discern risk, and diagnose a blossoming bubble before it vanishes along with your money.
Few politicians can make a speech concerning economic policy without using the term “competitiveness.” Yet, despite its frequent and casual use, there is little if any agreement on its meaning. Scholars have been slow to embrace the term, holding a healthy skepticism toward such political utterances. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) brought together experts from a variety of fields to discuss the issue of competitiveness and how it may influence their disciplines. This volume is composed of nine prominent scholars' interpretations of and answers to the question: “If ‘competitiveness’ were to have a rigorous and relevant meaning in your field, what might that be?”The conclusions these papers reach enrich the debate on what competitiveness is and how policymakers should strive to support it in the realms of tax policy, education policy, immigration, health care, international trade and much more.
Auerbach (1979, 1981) has demonstrated that inflation can lead to large inter-asset distortions, with the negative effects of higher inflation unambiguously declining with asset life. We show that this is true only if depreciation is treated as geometric for tax purposes. When depreciation is straightline, higher inflation can have the opposite effect, discouraging investment in long-lived assets. Since our current system can be thought of as a mixture of straightline and geometric, the sign of the inter-asset distortion is indeterminate. We show that under current U.S. tax rules, the "straightline" and "geometric" effects approximately cancel for equipment, causing almost no inter-asset distortions. For structures, inflation clearly causes substitution into long-lived assets.
The Magic Mountain: A Guide to Defining and Using a Budget Surplus
This text examines how firms change their investment decisions in response to tax policy and concludes that firms would substantially increase their investment in plant and equipment if some of the proposals for fundamental tax reform are enacted.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Investment and Union Certification
A growing body of work--both theoretical and empirical--has emphasized that unionization may be better understood as a tax on capital rather than a tax on labor. Under this "new" view, unionization unambiguously lowers investment. Using data on union certification elections, we estimate the impact of unionization on firms' investment behavior. Employing both a standard q-model and an "investment surprises" technique, we find that union certification significantly reduces investment. We find that a winning certification election has, on average, about the same effect on investment as would a 30 percentage point increase in the corporate tax.
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