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Sterling Slips at Open as Strategists Recommend Buying the Dip
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Pound Falls as Much-Awaited Brexit Breakthrough Proves Elusive
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.Sterling fell after U.K. politicians failed to deliver the decisive Brexit vote that had been promised at the weekend.The decline brought to a halt a four-day winning streak that was fueled by speculation Prime Minister Boris Johnson could win parliamentary backing for his divorce deal. But strategists say the drop may prove short-lived.“Investors will have to balance the disappointment of a further delay with the increasing likelihood of eventual passage,” said Ned Rumpeltin, European head of currency strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “The tail risk of an accidental no-deal crash out has also ratcheted down.”Analysts remain bullish even as a verdict on Johnson’s new divorce deal was deferred. Instead, lawmakers supported an amendment put forward by former Conservative minister Oliver Letwin which requires the House of Commons to pass all necessary Brexit legislation before holding a formal vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. That meant the prime minister was legally bound to ask the EU for another extension to negotiations.With the Times of London reporting that the EU may grant a three-month delay if Johnson is unable to secure support for his deal this week, the pound stabilized around $1.2934. The prime minister is set to introduce the legislation needed for an Oct. 31 exit and it’s possible he will garner enough support to push his deal through, according to a Bloomberg analysis.“Seems like an anti-climactic open for sterling, with investors potentially comforted by the Article 50 extension that the EU seems willing to grant in the case no deal is agreed,” said Valentin Marinov, Credit Agricole’s head of Group-of-10 currency research. “Given that another vote on the Johnson deal could come as soon as Tuesday, investors could use any sterling dips as buying opportunity.”Marinov is sticking to his view that the pound could reach $1.36 medium term.European Council President Donald Tusk said he would consult EU leaders on how to react to the U.K.’s request for another extension.Sterling could move sharply lower if Brussels were to formally reject a later deadline, according to TD’s Rumpeltin. It may lurch lower toward $1.2835 and then further to $1.2750 “if the sense from the EU was one of growing rancor and impatience,” he said.Still, Rumpeltin’s central view is one where the EU would grant an extension. And that more bullish slant for sterling is reflected in the views of other strategists too.“The weekend’s events, if anything, further reduce the risk of disorderly exit,” said Adam Cole, Royal Bank of Canada’s chief currency strategist. A knee-jerk negative sterling reaction may be a buying opportunity, he said.To contact the reporter on this story: Anooja Debnath in London at adebnath@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Dobson at pdobson2@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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Pound Declines as Johnson’s Brexit Breakthrough Proves Elusive
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.Sterling fell after U.K. politicians failed to deliver the decisive Brexit vote that had been promised at the weekend.The decline brought to a halt a four-day winning streak that was fueled by speculation Prime Minister Boris Johnson could win parliamentary backing for his divorce deal. Strategists say the drop may prove short-lived, with Goldman Sachs Group among those arguing that a vote will be carried this week.“Investors will have to balance the disappointment of a further delay with the increasing likelihood of eventual passage,” said Ned Rumpeltin, European head of currency strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “The tail risk of an accidental no-deal crash out has also ratcheted down.”Analysts remain bullish even as a verdict on Johnson’s new divorce deal was deferred. Instead, lawmakers supported an amendment put forward by former Conservative minister Oliver Letwin which requires the House of Commons to pass all necessary Brexit legislation before holding a formal vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. That meant the prime minister was legally bound to ask the EU for another extension to negotiations.The pound fell as much as 0.8% against the dollar, ending a four-day winning streak. It was down 0.6% at 1.2913 as of 11:29 a.m. in Tokyo.“Sterling is likely to remain somewhat volatile, but supported, because it appears the chances of a hard (no deal) Brexit are very slim,” said Joseph Capurso, a senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.The prime minister is set to introduce the legislation needed for an Oct. 31 exit and it’s possible he will garner enough support to push his deal through, according to a Bloomberg analysis. The Times of London reported that the EU may grant a three-month delay if Johnson is unable to secure support for his deal this week.“Seems like an anti-climactic open for sterling, with investors potentially comforted by the Article 50 extension that the EU seems willing to grant in the case no deal is agreed,” said Valentin Marinov, Credit Agricole’s head of Group-of-10 currency research. “Given that another vote on the Johnson deal could come as soon as Tuesday, investors could use any sterling dips as buying opportunity.”Marinov is sticking to his view that the pound could reach $1.36 medium term. Goldman analysts including Zach Pandl also see the currency gaining to $1.35.Hedge funds and other speculators reduced bets against the pound to the least-bearish position since July as of Oct. 15, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released Friday.European Council President Donald Tusk said he would consult EU leaders on how to react to the U.K.’s request for another extension.“General sentiment is still positive on Brexit, and this extension could be a small bump in the road,” said Sandeep Parekh, an FX strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “But I think the next few days will be very important.”Still, sterling could move sharply lower if Brussels were to formally reject a later deadline, according to TD’s Rumpeltin. It may lurch lower toward $1.2835 and then further to $1.2750 “if the sense from the EU was one of growing rancor and impatience,” he said.But Rumpeltin’s central view is one where the EU would grant an extension.And that more bullish slant for the pound is reflected in the views of other strategists too.“The weekend’s events, if anything, further reduce the risk of disorderly exit,” said Adam Cole, Royal Bank of Canada’s chief currency strategist. A knee-jerk negative sterling reaction may be a buying opportunity, he said.(Adds Goldman’s recommendation in ninth paragraph, CFTC data in 10th paragraph)\--With assistance from Michael G. Wilson.To contact the reporters on this story: Anooja Debnath in London at adebnath@bloomberg.net;Ruth Carson in Singapore at rliew6@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Dobson at pdobson2@bloomberg.net, Brett Miller, Tan Hwee AnnFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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Pound Falls as Johnson’s Brexit Breakthrough Proves Elusive
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.Sterling fell after U.K. politicians failed to deliver the decisive Brexit vote that had been promised at the weekend.The decline brought to a halt a four-day winning streak that was fueled by speculation Prime Minister Boris Johnson could win parliamentary backing for his divorce deal. But strategists say the drop may prove short-lived.“Investors will have to balance the disappointment of a further delay with the increasing likelihood of eventual passage,” said Ned Rumpeltin, European head of currency strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “The tail risk of an accidental no-deal crash out has also ratcheted down.”Analysts remain bullish even as a verdict on Johnson’s new divorce deal was deferred. Instead, lawmakers supported an amendment put forward by former Conservative minister Oliver Letwin which requires the House of Commons to pass all necessary Brexit legislation before holding a formal vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. That meant the prime minister was legally bound to ask the EU for another extension to negotiations.The pound fell as much as 0.8% against the dollar, ending a four-day winning streak. It was down 0.6% at 1.2906 as of 8 a.m. in Tokyo.“Sterling is likely to remain somewhat volatile, but supported, because it appears the chances of a hard (no deal) Brexit are very slim,” said Joseph Capurso, a senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.The prime minister is set to introduce the legislation needed for an Oct. 31 exit and it’s possible he will garner enough support to push his deal through, according to a Bloomberg analysis. The Times of London reported that the EU may grant a three-month delay if Johnson is unable to secure support for his deal this week.“Seems like an anti-climactic open for sterling, with investors potentially comforted by the Article 50 extension that the EU seems willing to grant in the case no deal is agreed,” said Valentin Marinov, Credit Agricole’s head of Group-of-10 currency research. “Given that another vote on the Johnson deal could come as soon as Tuesday, investors could use any sterling dips as buying opportunity.”Marinov is sticking to his view that the pound could reach $1.36 medium term.European Council President Donald Tusk said he would consult EU leaders on how to react to the U.K.’s request for another extension.“General sentiment is still positive on Brexit, and this extension could be a small bump in the road,” said Sandeep Parekh, an FX strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “But I think the next few days will be very important.”Still, sterling could move sharply lower if Brussels were to formally reject a later deadline, according to TD’s Rumpeltin. It may lurch lower toward $1.2835 and then further to $1.2750 “if the sense from the EU was one of growing rancor and impatience,” he said.But Rumpeltin’s central view is one where the EU would grant an extension.And that more bullish slant for the pound is reflected in the views of other strategists too.“The weekend’s events, if anything, further reduce the risk of disorderly exit,” said Adam Cole, Royal Bank of Canada’s chief currency strategist. A knee-jerk negative sterling reaction may be a buying opportunity, he said.(Updates with pound extending decline, comment from strategist.)\--With assistance from Michael G. Wilson.To contact the reporters on this story: Anooja Debnath in London at adebnath@bloomberg.net;Ruth Carson in Singapore at rliew6@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Dobson at pdobson2@bloomberg.net, Brett Miller, Shikhar BalwaniFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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Sterling’s Silver Lining Has Strategists Willing to Buy the Dip
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.Sterling may be primed to drop after politicians failed to deliver the decisive Brexit vote that had been promised for the weekend. But currency analysts see the balance of risks shifting to favor a stronger pound in time due to a lower chance that the U.K. will crash out of the European Union without a divorce deal.“The weekend’s events, if anything, further reduce the risk of disorderly exit,” said Adam Cole, Royal Bank of Canada’s chief currency strategist. “If there is a knee-jerk negative sterling reaction as we emerge from the weekend with a greater overhang of uncertainty than hoped,” it may be a buying opportunity, he said.In other words, any setback in the pound may be limited when trading resumes at 7 p.m. London time Sunday, even after a surge of more than 5.5% against the dollar this month. Strategists at Toronto-Dominion Bank foresee a “relatively modest unwind,” and those at Credit Agricole are sticking to their view that the pound could reach $1.36 medium term.Analysts remain bullish even as traders’ hopes for a resolution to the three-and-a-half year Brexit saga were dashed Saturday, when a verdict on Boris Johnson’s new divorce deal was deferred.Instead, lawmakers supported an amendment put forward by former Conservative minister Oliver Letwin which requires the House of Commons to pass all necessary Brexit legislation before holding a formal vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. That meant the prime minister was legally bound to ask the EU for another extension to negotiations.The pound has been the main sentiment barometer for Brexit since the 2016 referendum on EU membership. It strengthened for three straight weeks to $1.2984 as the potential for a deal emerged. A no-deal Brexit is seen as a negative for the currency as it would disrupt trade with the U.K.’s biggest partner.The prime minister will introduce the legislation needed for an Oct. 31 exit this week and it’s possible he will garner enough support to push his deal through, according to a Bloomberg analysis.“With all the legislation now put in place, a no-deal Brexit is off the table,” said Valentin Marinov, Credit Agricole’s head of Group-of-10 currency research. “Given that another vote on the Johnson deal could come as soon as Tuesday, investors could use any sterling dips as buying opportunity.”European Council President Donald Tusk will now start consulting EU leaders on how to react to the U.K.’s request for another extension.After the weekend developments, the pound is likely to slip to a $1.2850-$1.2920 range until there’s more clarity, according to TD Bank. But sterling could move sharply lower if Brussels were to formally reject a later deadline, according to Ned Rumpeltin, its European head of currency strategy. It may lurch lower toward $1.2835 and then further to $1.2750 “if the sense from the EU was one of growing rancor and impatience,” he said.Still, Rumpeltin’s central view is one where the EU would grant an extension.“The tail risk of an accidental no-deal crash out has also ratcheted down further,” he said. “Investors will have to balance the disappointment of a further delay with the increasing likelihood of eventual passage this week.”To contact the reporter on this story: Anooja Debnath in London at adebnath@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Dobson at pdobson2@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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Pound Trades Above $1.30 as Optimism Over Brexit Deal Builds
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.Sterling rose above $1.30 for the first time since May amid speculation Prime Minister Boris Johnson may be able to win parliamentary backing for his divorce deal as soon as this week.The U.K. currency had slipped as trading resumed after the weekend, when politicians failed to deliver a decisive Brexit vote in an extraordinary session. But strategists argued the drop would prove short-lived, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. among those to say a vote in favor of Johnson’s deal is likely to be carried. U.K. stocks rose, while gilts declined, underscoring the growing optimism.Analysts remain bullish even as a verdict on Johnson’s new divorce deal was deferred at the weekend. The prime minister is set to introduce the legislation needed for an Oct. 31 exit and it’s possible he will garner enough support to push his deal through, according to a Bloomberg analysis. “It’s all to play for and while the numbers in parliament are extremely tight, we would give the probability of success for the government at 60% either today or tomorrow,” strategists at MUFG, including Lee Hardman, wrote in a client note. “We would expect to see sterling into a new equilibrium range of $1.30-$1.35 if parliament approves the deal as we expect.”The pound rose as much as 0.2% to $1.3012, extending its run of gains into a fifth day. Gilts sank, with the 10-year yield climbing six basis points to 0.77%, while the domestically focused FTSE 250 index of stocks advanced.“Sterling is likely to remain somewhat volatile, but supported, because it appears the chances of a hard (no-deal) Brexit are very slim,” said Joseph Capurso, a senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.(Adds U.K. stocks, gilts move in second paragraph)\--With assistance from Michael G. Wilson.To contact the reporters on this story: Anooja Debnath in London at adebnath@bloomberg.net;Ruth Carson in Singapore at rliew6@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Dobson at pdobson2@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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Sterling Slips at Open as Strategists Recommend Buying the Dip
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.Sterling fell as currency markets resumed trading after U.K. politicians failed to deliver the decisive Brexit vote that had been promised at the weekend.While the U.K. currency snapped a four-day winning streak, its 0.5% drop pales in comparison with the surge of more than 5% against the dollar this month. Analysts say the drop may prove short-lived, with the balance of risks shifting to favor a stronger pound in time due to a lower chance that the U.K. will crash out of the European Union without a divorce deal.“The weekend’s events, if anything, further reduce the risk of disorderly exit,” said Adam Cole, Royal Bank of Canada’s chief currency strategist. A knee-jerk negative sterling reaction may be a buying opportunity, he said in comments before trading resumed.Analysts remain bullish even as traders’ hopes for a resolution to the three-and-a-half year Brexit saga were dashed Saturday, when a verdict on Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new divorce deal was deferred.Instead, lawmakers supported an amendment put forward by former Conservative minister Oliver Letwin which requires the House of Commons to pass all necessary Brexit legislation before holding a formal vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. That meant the prime minister was legally bound to ask the EU for another extension to negotiations.With the Times of London reporting that the EU may grant a three-month delay if Johnson is unable to secure support for his deal this week, the pound stabilized around $1.2917. The prime minister will introduce the legislation needed for an Oct. 31 exit this week and it’s possible he will garner enough support to push his deal through, according to a Bloomberg analysis.“Seems like an anti-climactic open for sterling, with investors potentially comforted by the Article 50 extension that the EU seems willing to grant in the case no deal is agreed,” said Valentin Marinov, Credit Agricole’s head of Group-of-10 currency research. “Given that another vote on the Johnson deal could come as soon as Tuesday, investors could use any sterling dips as buying opportunity.”Marinov is sticking to his view that the pound could reach $1.36 medium term, while those at NatWest Markets predict it will climb above $1.35 in the next few weeks.European Council President Donald Tusk said he would consult EU leaders on how to react to the U.K.’s request for another extension.Sterling could move sharply lower if Brussels were to formally reject a later deadline, according to Ned Rumpeltin, its European head of currency strategy. It may lurch lower toward $1.2835 and then further to $1.2750 “if the sense from the EU was one of growing rancor and impatience,” he said.Still, Rumpeltin’s central view is one where the EU would grant an extension.“The tail risk of an accidental no-deal crash out has also ratcheted down further,” he said. “Investors will have to balance the disappointment of a further delay with the increasing likelihood of eventual passage this week.”To contact the reporter on this story: Anooja Debnath in London at adebnath@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Dobson at pdobson2@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
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